Community Blog


Mar 03
2008

Who analyses the analysts?

Posted by: lowededwookie

Tagged in: stocks , history , Apple

lowededwookie

One of my favourite sites I keep coming back to, aside from this of course, is Roughly Drafted . The reason is how the site's owner constantly brings to light the flawed accusations that many so called analysts bring to light in their blogs. It's amazing to read how flawed these accusations are.

The current round is fun because these muppets seem to think that Apple isn't on track for selling 10 million iPhones by the end of this year based on the sales of iPhones currently. That's funny because the iPhone is one of the fastest selling smartphones on the market already blitzing Window Mobile joke phones and rapidly reaching market share for Symbian phones which includes Nokia, Motorola, and Sony.

One of the reasons they claim this is that there hasn't been the full sold iPhones being activated therefore Apple apparently hasn't sold them. Can you see the flaw in this logic? Apple only ever quotes over the counter sales so 1.4 million iPhones to date have been sold OVER THE COUNTER. These aren't the same as Microsoft's 1 million Zunes which have been sold to suppliers but have not been sold over the counter. These are valid sales, merely because 700 thousand haven't been activated doesn't mean they haven't been sold.

I know there are a few here on this site that have bought iPhones but I can guarantee that you haven't activated them have you on account of not being able to do so. Which leads to an interesting bit of maths. So far the iPhone is sold in these countries:

 

  • US - 302,329,080
  • England - 60,799,830
  • Germany - 82,262,570
  • France - 63,910,093

 

So already the iPhone is being sold to a potential 509,301,573 customers. Obviously not everyone of these is going to buy are they.

But the iPhone is going to be sold soon in Ireland adding another 4,127,265 to the total bringing it to 513,428,838.

Now if 2% of these people each bought 1 iPhone then the number of iPhones sold would be 10,268,577 which is over the amount of iPhones Apple predicted. There is more than enough people within these 5 countries to make Apple reach its goal.

This total is also not including potential countries such as:

 

  • Australia - 20,495,175
  • New Zealand - 4,132,492
  • Japan - 127,358,436
  • China - 1,327,558,426
  • Sweden - 9,030,665
  • Italy - 58,071,451

 

Add these potential countries to the list and you have an additional 1,546,646,645 bringing the total of potential customers to 2,060,075,483. Even 2% of this amount this year would be 41,201,510 or over 4 times the amount Apple is wanting to sell to.

But none of this potential is accounted for. It's almost as if these analysts are counting only American sales meaning Apple would have to sell to 3% of the American public but that just isn't going to be the case now is it?

The analysts seem to think that by Apple holding 18 billion dollars in cash, being freehold, making consecutive sales increases across the board on all computers means that they're in a world of trouble because the iPod sales have plateaued. Wow. Wow, that is incredible logic. Because Apple is doing so well compared to every other computer manufacturer out there Apple is in a world of trouble.

What is even more fun is that most of the numbers given are padded or only a small part of the big picture in an effort to paint Apple as a company in distress. Some, as in the case of The Street (Jim Cramer called to task ), have blantantly come out saying they make stuff up to falsely affect the markets which is a dodgy thing to come out and say if you don't want to be had up.

Given this free reign of misinformation which clearly affects markets then how is it that these people aren't regulated in the  information they give? If Apple's stocks drop merely because someone who thinks they know something blantantly lies about what Apple is doing how come these people aren't had up for misrepresentation?

Here's the bit I don't get. How can these people say what Apple is doing and therefore make stock predicitions based on this information when Apple doesn't let anyone know what it's doing until they release a product? Are people that moronic that they can't realise this?

Apparently so.


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